I deficit pubblici nel 2020: hanno davvero speso di più i paesi più colpiti dal Covid?
di Giulio Gottardo
21 aprile 2021
Nei paesi avanzati, non sembra esistere una correlazione tra aumenti dei deficit pubblici nel 2020 e entità dello shock economico subito dai vari paesi. L’entità degli aumenti è invece correlata al livello iniziale del debito pubblico: paesi che già avevano un debito pubblico elevato sono quelli che hanno aumentato il deficit in misura più significativa.
La nota è stata ripresa da La Repubblica in questo articolo del 21 aprile 2021.
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Nonostante il Covid abbia colpito tutti i paesi, la gravità della pandemia, dei suoi effetti e l’intensità (e i costi) delle misure di contenimento sono state molto diverse tra paesi. Il numero di morti per 100 mila abitanti, la severità dei lockdown, la caduta del Pil e i conseguenti deficit pubblici sono stati molto contenuti in alcuni paesi e senza precedenti in altri. Concentrandosi sulle economie avanzate nel 2020, i deficit pubblici sono stati compresi tra il 2,6 per cento del Pil in Svizzera e il 15,8 per cento negli Stati Uniti (Fig. 1).[1]
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)
Ci si potrebbe aspettare che gli aumenti del deficit pubblico tra 2020 e 2019 siano stati in qualche modo collegati alla gravità dell’epidemia e della crisi economica. Ci si potrebbe anche aspettare che paesi inizialmente molto indebitati abbiano avuto maggiore difficoltà ad aumentare il deficit pubblico.
In realtà, è vero il contrario: i paesi avanzati con le finanze pubbliche più deteriorate prima della pandemia siano stati quelli che hanno speso di più anche nel 2020 (Fig. 2).
![](data:image/png;base64,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)
Per investigare più adeguatamente questo fatto stilizzato è stata eseguita un’analisi econometrica, riportata nell’appendice. Anche con tecniche più sofisticate, che consentono di valutare la correlazione tra incremento del deficit nel 2020 e livello del debito nel 2019 a parità di gravità della pandemia e della recessione, si giunge allo stesso risultato statisticamente significativo. Al netto di una variabilità elevata persistente, i paesi più indebitati pre-Covid sono comunque quelli che, in media, hanno aumentato di più la spesa pubblica nel 2020.
Quali potrebbero essere le ragioni dietro questa correlazione? In primo luogo, l’imponente finanziamento dei deficit da parte delle banche centrali dei vari paesi, nonché il supporto di organizzazioni sovranazionali come l’Unione Europea, hanno consentito ai vari paesi avanzati di non essere vincolati nella loro risposta alla crisi dal precedente livello del debito pubblico. Ma come spiegare una correlazione positiva tra aumento del deficit e pre-esistente livello del debito? Una spiegazione potrebbe essere che i paesi più prodighi con la spesa pubblica non sono venuti meno a questa caratteristica durante la pandemia. I paesi più propensi a spendere, come evidenziato da un debito più elevato, hanno speso di più anche in presenza dello shock da Covid. Una spiegazione simile, ma non basata su presunte differenze culturali nell’approccio alle finanze pubbliche, potrebbe essere che i paesi più indebitati sono quelli con maggiori problemi in termini di efficienza della spesa pubblica. In altre parole, poiché la spesa pubblica nei paesi più indebitati sarebbe generalmente meno efficiente (e porterebbe quindi a debiti pubblici maggiori), “a parità di crisi” questi avrebbero dovuto spendere di più per fornire un pari supporto ai cittadini e all’economia nel 2020. In questo caso non si tratterebbe di prodigalità, ma di necessità dettata da un settore pubblico con una minore capacità di gestione delle risorse. In linea con lo spirito di quest’ultima ipotesi è l’analisi di A. Sapir per il Bruegel Institute, in cui si rileva che la qualità della Pubblica Amministrazione è in grado di spiegare una parte delle differenze nella gravità delle recessioni registrate nel 2020.[2] C’è però da notare che la maggior parte degli aumenti di spesa sono stati costituiti da trasferimenti dallo stato ai settori più colpiti: l’inefficienza dello stato nell’erogare quei finanziamenti avrebbe caso mai dovuto portare (e in alcuni casi ha portato) a un minor deficit.[3]
Appendice
Per investigare la robustezza della correlazione della Fig. 2 sono stati stimati i seguenti modelli multivariati:
![](data:image/png;base64,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)
Dove dt,i è il rapporto deficit-Pil del paese i nell’anno t, Dt,i è il rapporto debito-Pil del paese i nell’anno t, mt,i è il numero di morti di Covid per milione di abitanti nel paese i nell’anno t e gt,i è il tasso di crescita del Pil reale del paese i nell’anno t.
Le equazioni (1) e (2) sono stimate con il metodo dei minimi quadrati ordinari (OLS). Poiché nell’equazione (2) la variabile g2020,i - g2019,i è endogena, nell’equazione (3) si utilizzano i morti per milione come strumento per l’intensità della caduta del Pil.[4]
I risultati sono riportati nella Tav. 1.
Tav. 1: Regressioni
|
Variabile dipendente:
incremento deficit 2020-2019
|
|
(1)
|
(2)
|
(3)
|
debito-Pil 2019
|
0.0235**
|
0.0216***
|
0.0177*
|
|
(3.63)
|
(3.79)
|
(2.17)
|
|
|
|
|
morti per milione
|
0.000726
|
0.000491
|
|
|
(0.81)
|
(0.59)
|
|
|
|
|
|
caduta del Pil 2020-2019
|
|
0.105
|
0.323
|
|
|
(0.55)
|
(0.80)
|
|
|
|
|
costante
|
5.019***
|
4.589**
|
3.693
|
|
(5.06)
|
(2.89)
|
(1.42)
|
N
|
34
|
34
|
34
|
R2
|
0.2459
|
0.2546
|
0.2165
|
Nota: tutti gli errori sono robusti per l’eteroschedasticità. Le colonne (1), (2) e (3) corrispondo alle equazioni (1), (2) e (3). Fonte: Elaborazione OCPI su dati FMI – Fiscal Monitor (April 2021).
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[3] In effetti, lo stato italiano ha finito per avere un deficit nel 2020 inferiore a quello inizialmente previsto.